Roll Call is back with a pair of Mountain West SurveyUSA polls in two deeply conservative districts (10/18-19, likely voters, no trend lines).
Walt Minnick (D): 51
Bill Sali (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±4%)
These numbers confirm Minnick’s own internal polling, which also has Sali trailing by six points.
Sali’s favorable rating? A dismal 33-47, compared to Minnick’s 45-23. Minnick is taking 21% of self-described conservative voters, and sweeping among moderates (80-16) and liberals (94-5). No wonder the NRCC went up with a $200K ad buy last week to help stall Minnick’s momentum.
Gary Trauner (D): 44
Cynthia Lummis (R): 50
David Herbert (L): 4
(MoE: ±4%)
Two recent polls by Mason-Dixon and Research 2000 have given Trauner a 44-43 lead, with a high share of the undecided vote coming from Republicans. These numbers are not so kind. Also of concern are the favorable ratings of both Trauner and Lummis — they are virtually identical (41-35 for Lummis and 42-36 for Trauner), and Lummis takes a decent chunk of the moderate vote (33%) and even 10% of self-described liberals. Democrats had hoped to portray Lummis as another Barbara Cubin, the retiring GOP Rep. who has a dismal 23-53 approval rating in this poll. When Trauner and Lummis are sitting at an equal position in terms of likeability, that doesn’t bode well.
Bonus findings: McCain beats Obama by 57-37 in Idaho’s 1st, and by 58-37 in Wyoming.
He is after all, “an absolute idiot.” heh.
Too bad about Trauner, but the undecideds in other polls are breaking as I would expect them to.
when the undecideds get pushed to one side or the other… Unfortunate. But that’s why we still have this as Leans Republican.
about all we can hope for is that McCain is down by 6 or 8 nationwide on election day. Depression among the GOP and an enthused Democratic base might create enough of a turnout disparity to get Trauner elected.
This is partly why the ACORN stuff is being floated. To motivate the GOP base to turn out, even in the face of certain defeat at the presidential level. Something or other has to be done to get the base to turn out, and ACORN seems to be the bogeyman du siecle.
Because a base that knows it will lose AND never liked McCain anyway is a scary scary prospect for McConnell and Chambliss and about three dozen others.
that that Wyoming poll is wrong, and the Idaho one is right. M-D and R2K had identical polls so maybe SUSA is an outlier in Wyoming…
In terms of ID-01, no wonder the NRCC just dropped $225 K there. I bet Tom Cole had a hard time signing over that check! Honestly, if I was the GOP I would let Sali lose knowing that a half-normal GOP candidate in the district could win back a lost seat in 2010.
Any indications as to which of Minnick or Trauner is more progressive?
They list a bunch of House races, but why the heck don’t they include ID-01 and WY-AL?
wants to say, why spend money on these races when we can spend money on seats we can keep.
But the other, bigger, part of me says, hahahahahaha big ole middle finger!